NBA MVP Race: Early Season Analytics Crown Contenders
28.4 is the PER figure currently attached to Nikola Jokic, and frankly, it’s just business as usual for the Serbian maestro. If you ask me, we’re witnessing a statistical anomaly that has somehow become the baseline. He’s putting up a 65.2% true shooting percentage while maintaining a usage rate north of 30%. When you look at the raw Box Plus/Minus (BPM) of 11.2, you aren't just looking at an MVP frontrunner; you’re looking at a historical outlier who makes elite defenses look like a JV scrimmage.
Shifting the lens to the perimeter, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is doing things that defy the conventional gravity of the modern guard.
- True Shooting Percentage: 62.8%
- Win Shares: 3.4 (League-leading)
- Field Goal Percentage: 51.4%
Shooting 51.4% from the field as a primary initiator is absurd. It’s not just the volume; it’s the efficiency. His ability to navigate the mid-range while keeping his turnover percentage under 8% puts him in the 99th percentile for offensive creation. I’ve spent the last three nights re-watching his tape, and the efficiency isn't a fluke. It’s high-level geometry.
Then there’s Jayson Tatum.
With a usage rate of 31.5%, he’s carrying a workload that would crater most wings. Yet, his defensive win shares remain among the top five for forwards. He’s currently operating in the 92nd percentile for isolation scoring, and when you cross-reference that with his rebounding rate—which is hovering at a career-high 8.4 per game—the argument for his candidacy starts to feel inevitable.
"Efficiency is the only metric that doesn't lie when the lights get bright."
If you’re still clinging to raw points-per-game, you’re missing the point. The analytics don’t just suggest who’s playing well; they reveal who is actually dictating the outcome of these possessions. Right now, the race isn't a dead heat. It’s a battle between pure, unadulterated efficiency and the sheer gravitational pull of a few generational talents. My money? Keep an eye on that Win Shares column. It rarely misses.
